July’s Jobs Report came in weaker than expected, with just 73,000 jobs added, well below the 110,000 forecast. Most of the gains came from healthcare and social assistance (+73,000), while government employment dropped by 10,000. The unemployment rate also rose slightly, from 4.1% to 4.2%.
What’s the bottom line?
The real story is in the revisions. May’s job growth was cut from 144,000 to just 19,000, while June’s was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000 – a combined drop of 258,000 jobs. So far this year, revisions have reduced reported job growth by an average of 77,000 jobs per month. If July follows a similar pattern, actual job growth could end up far lower, or even negative.
There’s also a notable gap between the two surveys that make up the report. The headline job growth figure (+73,000) comes from the Business Survey, which relies on modeling and estimates. Meanwhile, the Household Survey, based on direct interviews, showed a loss of 260,000 jobs in July, including a drop of 440,000 full-time positions.
