The Conference Board released their latest Leading Economic Index (LEI), which is a forward-looking index that takes a broad look at the economy and tracks where it’s heading in the near term. January brought a 0.4% drop, marking the 22nd consecutive month of declines. The last time the index fell 22 straight months was in 2007 to 2009, during the global financial crisis.
What’s the bottom line? Despite January’s decline, the Conference Board softened their tone on recession expectations. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, explained, “While the declining LEI continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, for the first time in the past two years, six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period (ending in January 2024). As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead.”