U.S. Economy Contracts: The U.S. economy declined 0.3% in Q1 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advanced GDP report. This contraction primarily stemmed from increased imports (ahead of tariff implementation) and reduced government spending, partially offset by growth in investment, consumer spending and exports.
Housing Market Activity Improves: Pending Home Sales (signed contracts on existing homes) jumped 6.1% from February to March – marking two consecutive monthly increases. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributes this surge to lower mortgage rates in March and suggests it “implies a sizable build-up of potential home buyers.”
Labor Sector Weakening: Initial Jobless Claims hit their highest level since February at 241,000, while Continuing Claims jumped by 83,000 to 1.916 million – the highest since November 2021. In addition, job openings fell to 7.192 million in March, continuing their decline from 2022 peaks. Remote work may inflate these figures through multi-state postings, potentially concealing even fewer actual openings. The job vacancies to unemployed ratio has dropped from 2:1 in 2022 to 1:1, signaling deteriorating labor market conditions.