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New Home Sales Exceed Expectations

The Census Bureau released its delayed February and March new home sales data following last fall’s government shutdown, and both reports came in stronger than expected. Sales rose 9% month-over-month in February and another 7.4% in March, marking a combined nearly 17% increase since January.

What’s the bottom line?
Some headlines focused on a 5.3% drop in the median home price from February to March, suggesting builders are cutting prices due to market challenges. But a closer look tells a more complete story. Since the median price reflects the midpoint of all sales, it can shift based on what’s selling most. In this case, there was a noticeable increase in homes sold under $500,000 and fewer above that point, helping explain the dip in the median. Note that a drop in the median price is not the same as declining home values. In fact, broader home price trends and forecasts continue to point toward steady appreciation.

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