April’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed that headline inflation rose 0.3% from March, with the year-over-year reading holding steady at 2.7%. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred method which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 0.2% monthly. The year-over-year reading remained at 2.8%, stalling progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.
What’s the bottom line? The Fed has been working hard to tame inflation, hiking its benchmark Fed Funds Rate (which is the overnight borrowing rate for banks) eleven times between March 2022 and July 2023. These hikes were designed to slow the economy by making borrowing more expensive and lowering the demand for goods, so pricing pressure and inflation would shrink.
The Fed has held rates steady since last September because inflation had been making good progress lower late last year before stalling more recently. Fed members have emphasized that they do not expect to cut rates until they’re confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards their 2% target.
However, a sharp rise in the unemployment rate (which has been in a narrow range between 3.7% and 3.9% since last August) could also impact the Fed’s timing for rate cuts, given their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. The unemployment rate for May will be reported this Friday.