January’s Jobs Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed 130,000 jobs added, more than double the 55,000 expected. The unemployment rate edged down from 4.4% to 4.3%.
What’s the bottom line?
At first glance, that looks like a solid report. But conflicting labor data, revisions, and seasonal adjustments suggest the underlying trend may be softer than it appears. ADP reported just 22,000 private payroll gains last month, while Revelio showed a decline of 13,300 non-farm jobs. Job openings fell sharply to 6.54 million in December. Plus, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported the highest January job cuts since 2009 and the lowest level of January hiring announcements since it began tracking the data 17 years ago.
Revisions to the BLS report also played an important role. November and December payrolls were revised lower by a combined 17,000 jobs. More notably, total job growth for 2025 was revised down by 403,000, leaving just 181,000 net jobs created for the year – an average of only 15,000 per month.
Seasonal adjustments further complicate the picture. January typically sees significant job losses as holiday and seasonal workers are let go, so the BLS applies a large adjustment. In the raw data, payrolls actually fell by 2.65 million jobs. After applying the sizable January adjustment, that decline translated into a reported gain of 130,000 jobs.