April brought a surprise with 177,000 new jobs added – well above the expected 130,000, according to the Bureau of LaborStatistics (BLS). The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.
What’s the bottom line
While April’s headline number appears strong, it’s important to remember these figures will be revised incoming months. Recent history suggests caution – the first three months of 2025 all saw significant downward revisions(January: -32K, February: -49K, March: -43K). If April follows this pattern, the actual job growth may fall below forecasts.
In addition, the BLS birth/death model, which estimates small business job creation, added a whopping 393,000 jobs in April. This sharply contradicts ADP’s report showing small businesses added just 11,000 jobs – suggesting potential overestimation.
Another concerning trend is the average unemployment duration increased to 23.2 weeks – the highest since December. This aligns with the ongoing elevation in weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, pointing to persistent challenges in the labor market.
