Inflation rose 0.3% from November to December, per the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI also rose from 3.1% to 3.4% on an annual basis, though this is still near the lowest level in almost three years. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% while the annual reading fell from 4% to 3.9%. This was the first time Core CPI fell below 4% in over two years!Rising costs for energy, used cars and motor vehicle insurance all contributed to the increase in inflation last month. High shelter costs were also a factor, though these have been moderating based on other reports, which should help inflation move even lower once the reporting catches up.
What’s the bottom line? Inflation has made significant progress lower after peaking in 2022, with the headline reading now at 3.4% (down from 9.1%) and the core reading at 3.9% (down from 6.6%).
Remember, the Fed began aggressively hiking the Fed Funds Rate (the overnight borrowing rate for banks) in March 2022 to try to slow the economy and curb runaway inflation. Following eleven hikes in this cycle, the Fed pressed pause at their last three meetings in 2023, as signs of cooling inflation grew.
Will the progress we’ve seen on inflation be enough for the Fed to shift from rate hikes to rate cuts later this year, as many economists expect?