May’s Jobs Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that 139,000 jobs were added – just above the expected 130,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.
What’s the bottom line?
Despite the positive headline, a closer look at the underlying data reveals areas of concern. Notably, these initial figures are often revised in subsequent months. In fact, the first four months of 2025 all experienced significant downward revisions (January: -32K, February: -49K, March: -108K, April: -30K). Should May’s numbers be revised similarly, actual job growth could ultimately fall short of current estimates.
Moreover, the headline job figure (+139,000) comes from the Business Survey, which is heavily based on modeling and estimates. On the other hand, the Household Survey – considered more immediate because it is based on direct interviews with households –showed a substantial loss of 696,000 jobs. This survey also reported a decline of 623,000 full-time positions.